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How PointClickCare is using predictive modelling to reduce risk among Skilled Nursing Facility (SNF) Residents

Addressing Preventable Readmissions Among SNF Residents

The Challenge:

CMS introduced value-based care programs, rewarding high-quality outcomes.

The Demand:

Post-acute settings need tools to identify high-risk patients and predict adverse outcomes.

A study by PointClickCare and Schmidt College analyzed SNF EHR data during short-stays to predict risk of re-hospitalizations.

Our aim was to predict daily likelihood of re-hospitalizations or death within seven days.

A Shift in Predictive Focus

Conventional solutions for risk prediction typically only cover 30 days.

Single 30-days prediction window

Instead of predicting risk of readmission over 30 days, we applied the model to predict risk during the first 100 days of SNF care, covering short-stay residents.

100 days of SNF care prediction window

Providing caregivers with the right information, at the right time enhances:

surveillance | assessments | intervention

Improving the resident’s clinical trajectory and reducing the chance of an adverse event.

Key Findings

Impact of Comprehensive Data


Our sample population of 5,642,474 residents,
totaling 289,433,542 patient days revealed:

EHR data enables prediction among short-stay residents beginning on day one where the greatest risk of re-hospitalization exists.

Incorporating data sources beyond demographics and diagnoses boosts ability to predict risk.

Tailored predictive models using SNF-specific data outperform general models designed for other care settings.

Conclusion

The Value of SNF-Specific Models

Predictive models that provide insights on a per-resident basis enable the daily decision making required among these high-needs populations.

Read the full study